Dr R Srinivasan
Sun Tzu said, “If you
know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred
battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you
will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle”.
Strategic discourses across
the globe have focused on China on account of the unprecedented militarization
that has happened in the South China Sea. China’s defiance of UNCLOS Arbitral
Award to Philippines, building artificial islands in SCS and launching a series
of military exercises close to Taiwan and Japan have been the theme of hundreds
of strategic debates.
The Chinese actions in
Galwan in June this year and the subsequent engagements and disengagements
between India and China are also the themes of such discourses in India
specially. India’s action to hasten the arrival of five Rafale fighter from
France, DRDO successfully testing improved Varunastra (torpedo), a ministerial
announcement that billions of USD would now are slated for upgrading defense
equipment and such like news have been heartily discussed by experts almost to
the point of hailing India’s might and will to address Chinese ambitions on
India’s borders. It is to be recognized that such enthusiastic reading of the
situation is good for national morale.
Experts agree that
between equipment and morale, the latter is more important. There are a million
battles in which this has been proved right too. However, experts also concede
that morale is not a substitute for equipment. A poorly equipped army, however
well motivated it may be, stands the risk humiliation in battle. Again,
Sino-Indian conflict of 1961 provides ample lessons in this.
Taking the cue from Sun
Tzu quoted above, we shall first see how China balances this factor.
The
Taiwan Crisis of 1996
In 1996, Taiwan
announced its first ever democratic elections for its President. The sitting
president, Lee Teng-hui of the Kuomintang party was voted to office in those
elections. When the announcement for elections were made in 1995, as expected
China protested and even mobilized its Second Artillery Corps (now designated
as PLA Rocket Forces) and re-deployed its F-7 (MiG 21 Fishbed variant) fleet
some 250 miles from Taiwan. Reportedly, hundreds of Chinese civilian fishing
boats entered Taiwanese waters too. Chinese continued missile ‘testing’ and
firing live missiles as part of the exercise even after March 1996 elections
were over (Mizokami, 2019). With tensions
rising, especially when two missiles fell within thirty five mile radius of
Taipei, the beleaguered Taiwan turned to its staunchest ally, USA, fearing
imminent invasion by PLA.
US responded quickly.
Japan based carrier fleet led by USS Independence took position on the East of
Taiwan. A bigger carrier group headed by USS Nimitz rushed from the Persian
Gulf and took its position in Philippine Sea (Global Security, 2011). With two US Carrier
Groups now flanking Taiwan, China called off its military exercises. A credible
threat of invasion was averted.
While there were sighs
of relief in Taiwan, US and its allies, China learnt a crucial lesson – the
importance of aircraft carriers!
The PLAN as on that day
had no carrier task force and its shore based missile corps or tin-pot naval
ships were no match for the armada headed by Independence and Nimitz. It may
not be out of place to say that historical memories of British-European
battleships raining hellfire on Canton in 1839 may have flashed across the
Chinese mind.
So
what did the Chinese do?
In 1991 when USSR broke
into 16 countries of Central Asia, Ukraine came in possession of Kuznetsov-class aircraft cruiser Riga which
had been commissioned in 1988. Cash strapped Ukraine put the ship up for sale
to Russia, India and China. In view of the diplomatic situation in the world in
the aftermath of the collapse of USSR, China declined. India did not take
interest and Russia was financially weak. So the fully constructed carrier,
short of electronics and few other needs, was left to rust. In 1998 however, the
rusting hulk was bought at auction for $20 million a Mr. Chong Lot for his
company based in Macau. Chong Lot proposed that the ship would be converted
into a $200 million floating hotel and casino (ARKIB, 1998).
In a story that could
become an international bestselling thriller, Riga commenced its journey in
June 2000 and tugged around the Cape of Good Hope, reached Chinese waters in
February 2002, a journey of 28200 km at a speed of 6 knots!! In 2012, after
refits and modernization, now christened Liaoning, the aircraft carrier entered
service with PLAN in September.
The entire exercise of
obtaining its aircraft carrier was done out in the typical Chinese way – bluff,
divert and deny. For example, when reports started appearing in the news, the
Chinese Navy official who mastered minded the operation went ‘missing’. Later
it was reported that he was imprisoned for smuggling. In 2012, when reports of
the carrier refit appeared, Chinese admitted candidly to refitting the ship for
‘scientific and explorative purposes’. The consummate skill with Chinese media
puts out or denies information and misinformation makes it hard to discern the
truths surrounding anything. Of course, what stands out undeniably is that
China has its own aircraft carrier the Liaoning. The second Liaoning class
carrier, Shandong, was commissioned by the PLA Navy on December 17, 2019, in
Sanya, South China's Hainan Province. What is important to note is the speed
with which Shandong came into service, unlike Liaoning. Construction started in
November 2013 and in December 2019, she was commissioned into PLAN (China Power
Team, 2020).
What
do we learn?
Baku was built in 1987
and remained in Russian navy as a Gorshkov Class carrier till 1996. It was
de-activated due to financial crisis in Russia. India’s interest in the carrier
began then. Eight years of negotiations later, India and Russia signed a deal
for its purchase. It took nine more years before she entered service, now
re-christened as INS Vikramaditya. Any diversion into the politico-bureaucratic
delays and scandals that have racked defense procurement in India will take us
away from what Sun Tzu taught us to do: “If you know the enemy and know
yourself…”. So let us just look at the lessons that come out of the thriller
like Chinese story that we may title in James Bond style – From Macau, with
Love!
Lesson
1:
With two US carrier
groups standing at its doorstep, especially of the Nimitz class, use of the
entire Second Artillery Corps and fleet of J-7s would have only repeated what
happened at Canton. President Xi Jinping specifically called it the Century of
Humiliation. Adventurism tempered with wisdom. So, lesson number one is: Learn
from your history.
Lesson
2:
It took Chinese ten
years to refit and induct Riga as their own Liaoning. The point to note is it
the rusting old float that was towed 28000 km came became China’s credible
aircraft carrier through their own technical, home grown expertise at the port
of Dalian (Vavasseur, 2019). Lesson number two:
Grow your technical expertise to cater to FUTURE needs.
Lesson
3:
Liaoning even went
through a refit after six years of service bringing new lessons. The third
aircraft carrier the China is developing now reportedly will come with CATOBAR
(Catapult Assisted Take-Off but Arrested Recovery) design equipped with
electromagnetic catapults). Lesson number three: Learn again from your weapon
system and involve R&D in improvising them.
Interestingly, India’s
story of procuring INS Vikramaditya runs on a similar dateline to Liaoning.
Rest is open to deductions.
Lesson
4:
The second carrier,
Shandong, was launched in less than six years from the scratch. An ability to
assimilate and focus research to produce what the country needs. Lesson number
four: Remain focused and constantly upgrade skills.
Lesson
5:
The political scenario
in China through late 1990’s to 2012 went through as many incidents and events
as could draw parallel from India. Just to mention few events: in 1996, China
launches Shanghai Five that became SCO later; in 1997, death of Deng Xiaoping
witnesses riots, bombings and killings; in 1998, Zhu Rongji launches reforms,
creating economic turmoil in and outside Party lines; in 1999, NATO bombs
Chinese Embassy in Belgrade; in 2000, the purging of corrupt officials starts;
in 2003+ SARS hits China and the Hong Kong rebellion breaks out; in 2005, China
adopts new law that calls for Taiwan
calls for use of force should Taipei declare independence from mainland China; 2005-06
witness rising tensions with Japan; in 2007-08, new Bishop chosen by China is
approved by the Pope in Rome and the worst ever snow storms kill over a 100
million people; 2008-09 mark the global financial crisis impacting China too;
2010-12, notwithstanding allegation of Chinese cyber hacks and resultant with
US, it emerges as the world’s no.2 economy; in 2012. The Bo Xilai scandal rocks
China… (BBC, 2019)
Lesson number five, and
most important of all: Internal or even externally assisted turmoil come and
pass over. As they say-Even This Shall Pass. The country’s political,
bureaucratic mechanism must be proofed against such vagaries of the times.
Conclusion
The lessons that we
have attempted to draw from China’s aircraft carrier acquisition may appear too
big for the type of events we have taken to introspect into. We do feel that
way when we write about this. But then, we are chastened by our own
Tiruvalluvar who says:
எற்றுஎன்று
இரங்குவ
செய்யற்க
செய்வானேல்
மற்றுஅன்ன
செய்யாமை
நன்று
“A person shall not
undertake in the first place, any act which might force him to regret later.
If, by chance, he had done, such an act by mistake due to ignorance or
unavoidable circumstances, let him not repeat it”
Manu, the giver of law that
even today forms the basis of Indian Civil law, also said the same:
अज्ञानाद् यदि वा ज्ञानात् कृत्वा कर्म विगर्हितम् ।
तस्माद् विमुक्तिमन्विच्छन् द्वितीयं न समाचरेत् ॥
“He who, having either
unintentionally or intentionally committed a regrettable deed, desires to be
freed from the guilt on it, must not commit it a second time” (Sanskrit Roots, n.d).
We generally take these
philosophers as having dealt with man’s quest of realization with. However,
these lessons apply equally in all the spheres of life of a society too.
Even Sun Tzu never
wrote his treatise keeping only Generals and Commanders in mind!!
Acknowledgment
This article was first published by te author in Defence Research and Studies website https://dras.in/chinese-aircraft-carrier-from-macau-with-love/ on 28 December 2020.
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