|
This blog provides a forum for young scholars in Social and Strategic Studies domains to exchange their notes and research, share their opinions and seek further inputs relevant to their fields. Full length research papers may be submitted to the parent Journal's website at www.ejsss.net.in
|
“We can’t just wait to get help until we die”: More and more protesters see no hope for a return to democracy outside of taking up arms.
Article in DRI Asia Review on 30July 2021: Can China Be Tamed Through Economics? |
Despite all the talk of China-U.S. economic decoupling and premonition (and hyperventilation) about a new Cold War in the making, it is business as usual when it comes to trade between the two countries. On July 22, Bloomberg reported that despite Donald Trump’s tariffs designed to temper Chinese exports to the United States and reduce his country’s trade deficit with China, bilateral trade has bounced back to a new record. Noting this development, the news outlet wrote: “Eighteen months after the Trump administration signed the phase-one trade deal [in January 2020], the agreement has turned out to be a truce at best. The US trade deficit has not shrunk, most levies are still in place, and it has not led to negotiations over other economic issues.” Read the full article at https://thediplomat.com/ads/dri-asia-review/2021-07-30/index.html
|
Call for papers (CFP) open for Apr-May 2021 Issue. Mail abstracts in 150-250 words with full author details to Editor at submission.ejss@gmail.com
Once accepted, full papers may be submitted through online submission system by registering as an Author. Visit www.ejsss.net.in for submission guidelines.
Last date for receipt of abstracts is 28 February 2021.
We are a member journal of Crossref and firmly believe in Open Access policy. All our publications are put through a blind review process involving an Editor and subject expert Peer Reviewer.
Commencing July 2020, we have published two Issues with 12 research papers and 05 Book Reviews by accomplished authors from India, Ghana, USA and Austria. We are in the process of publishing a Special Issue on Borders with 07 papers by end Jan 2021.
We are glad to accept synopsis of approved PhD or M Phil Thesis (subject to written consent from research supervisor or appropriate person in the institution the author is affiliated with) and case studies that may result from field work pertaining to social sciences.
Detailed author and submission guidelines are available at our website. We accept submissions only in MS Word format.
Dr R Srinivasan
Sun Tzu said, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle”.
Strategic discourses across
the globe have focused on China on account of the unprecedented militarization
that has happened in the South China Sea. China’s defiance of UNCLOS Arbitral
Award to Philippines, building artificial islands in SCS and launching a series
of military exercises close to Taiwan and Japan have been the theme of hundreds
of strategic debates.
The Chinese actions in
Galwan in June this year and the subsequent engagements and disengagements
between India and China are also the themes of such discourses in India
specially. India’s action to hasten the arrival of five Rafale fighter from
France, DRDO successfully testing improved Varunastra (torpedo), a ministerial
announcement that billions of USD would now are slated for upgrading defense
equipment and such like news have been heartily discussed by experts almost to
the point of hailing India’s might and will to address Chinese ambitions on
India’s borders. It is to be recognized that such enthusiastic reading of the
situation is good for national morale.
Experts agree that
between equipment and morale, the latter is more important. There are a million
battles in which this has been proved right too. However, experts also concede
that morale is not a substitute for equipment. A poorly equipped army, however
well motivated it may be, stands the risk humiliation in battle. Again,
Sino-Indian conflict of 1961 provides ample lessons in this.
Taking the cue from Sun
Tzu quoted above, we shall first see how China balances this factor.
The
Taiwan Crisis of 1996
In 1996, Taiwan
announced its first ever democratic elections for its President. The sitting
president, Lee Teng-hui of the Kuomintang party was voted to office in those
elections. When the announcement for elections were made in 1995, as expected
China protested and even mobilized its Second Artillery Corps (now designated
as PLA Rocket Forces) and re-deployed its F-7 (MiG 21 Fishbed variant) fleet
some 250 miles from Taiwan. Reportedly, hundreds of Chinese civilian fishing
boats entered Taiwanese waters too. Chinese continued missile ‘testing’ and
firing live missiles as part of the exercise even after March 1996 elections
were over
US responded quickly.
Japan based carrier fleet led by USS Independence took position on the East of
Taiwan. A bigger carrier group headed by USS Nimitz rushed from the Persian
Gulf and took its position in Philippine Sea
While there were sighs
of relief in Taiwan, US and its allies, China learnt a crucial lesson – the
importance of aircraft carriers!
The PLAN as on that day
had no carrier task force and its shore based missile corps or tin-pot naval
ships were no match for the armada headed by Independence and Nimitz. It may
not be out of place to say that historical memories of British-European
battleships raining hellfire on Canton in 1839 may have flashed across the
Chinese mind.
So
what did the Chinese do?
In 1991 when USSR broke
into 16 countries of Central Asia, Ukraine came in possession of Kuznetsov-class aircraft cruiser Riga which
had been commissioned in 1988. Cash strapped Ukraine put the ship up for sale
to Russia, India and China. In view of the diplomatic situation in the world in
the aftermath of the collapse of USSR, China declined. India did not take
interest and Russia was financially weak. So the fully constructed carrier,
short of electronics and few other needs, was left to rust. In 1998 however, the
rusting hulk was bought at auction for $20 million a Mr. Chong Lot for his
company based in Macau. Chong Lot proposed that the ship would be converted
into a $200 million floating hotel and casino
In a story that could
become an international bestselling thriller, Riga commenced its journey in
June 2000 and tugged around the Cape of Good Hope, reached Chinese waters in
February 2002, a journey of 28200 km at a speed of 6 knots!! In 2012, after
refits and modernization, now christened Liaoning, the aircraft carrier entered
service with PLAN in September.
The entire exercise of
obtaining its aircraft carrier was done out in the typical Chinese way – bluff,
divert and deny. For example, when reports started appearing in the news, the
Chinese Navy official who mastered minded the operation went ‘missing’. Later
it was reported that he was imprisoned for smuggling. In 2012, when reports of
the carrier refit appeared, Chinese admitted candidly to refitting the ship for
‘scientific and explorative purposes’. The consummate skill with Chinese media
puts out or denies information and misinformation makes it hard to discern the
truths surrounding anything. Of course, what stands out undeniably is that
China has its own aircraft carrier the Liaoning. The second Liaoning class
carrier, Shandong, was commissioned by the PLA Navy on December 17, 2019, in
Sanya, South China's Hainan Province. What is important to note is the speed
with which Shandong came into service, unlike Liaoning. Construction started in
November 2013 and in December 2019, she was commissioned into PLAN
What
do we learn?
Baku was built in 1987
and remained in Russian navy as a Gorshkov Class carrier till 1996. It was
de-activated due to financial crisis in Russia. India’s interest in the carrier
began then. Eight years of negotiations later, India and Russia signed a deal
for its purchase. It took nine more years before she entered service, now
re-christened as INS Vikramaditya. Any diversion into the politico-bureaucratic
delays and scandals that have racked defense procurement in India will take us
away from what Sun Tzu taught us to do: “If you know the enemy and know
yourself…”. So let us just look at the lessons that come out of the thriller
like Chinese story that we may title in James Bond style – From Macau, with
Love!
Lesson
1:
With two US carrier
groups standing at its doorstep, especially of the Nimitz class, use of the
entire Second Artillery Corps and fleet of J-7s would have only repeated what
happened at Canton. President Xi Jinping specifically called it the Century of
Humiliation. Adventurism tempered with wisdom. So, lesson number one is: Learn
from your history.
Lesson
2:
It took Chinese ten
years to refit and induct Riga as their own Liaoning. The point to note is it
the rusting old float that was towed 28000 km came became China’s credible
aircraft carrier through their own technical, home grown expertise at the port
of Dalian
Lesson
3:
Liaoning even went
through a refit after six years of service bringing new lessons. The third
aircraft carrier the China is developing now reportedly will come with CATOBAR
(Catapult Assisted Take-Off but Arrested Recovery) design equipped with
electromagnetic catapults). Lesson number three: Learn again from your weapon
system and involve R&D in improvising them.
Interestingly, India’s
story of procuring INS Vikramaditya runs on a similar dateline to Liaoning.
Rest is open to deductions.
Lesson
4:
The second carrier,
Shandong, was launched in less than six years from the scratch. An ability to
assimilate and focus research to produce what the country needs. Lesson number
four: Remain focused and constantly upgrade skills.
Lesson
5:
The political scenario
in China through late 1990’s to 2012 went through as many incidents and events
as could draw parallel from India. Just to mention few events: in 1996, China
launches Shanghai Five that became SCO later; in 1997, death of Deng Xiaoping
witnesses riots, bombings and killings; in 1998, Zhu Rongji launches reforms,
creating economic turmoil in and outside Party lines; in 1999, NATO bombs
Chinese Embassy in Belgrade; in 2000, the purging of corrupt officials starts;
in 2003+ SARS hits China and the Hong Kong rebellion breaks out; in 2005, China
adopts new law that calls for Taiwan
calls for use of force should Taipei declare independence from mainland China; 2005-06
witness rising tensions with Japan; in 2007-08, new Bishop chosen by China is
approved by the Pope in Rome and the worst ever snow storms kill over a 100
million people; 2008-09 mark the global financial crisis impacting China too;
2010-12, notwithstanding allegation of Chinese cyber hacks and resultant with
US, it emerges as the world’s no.2 economy; in 2012. The Bo Xilai scandal rocks
China…
Lesson number five, and
most important of all: Internal or even externally assisted turmoil come and
pass over. As they say-Even This Shall Pass. The country’s political,
bureaucratic mechanism must be proofed against such vagaries of the times.
Conclusion
The lessons that we
have attempted to draw from China’s aircraft carrier acquisition may appear too
big for the type of events we have taken to introspect into. We do feel that
way when we write about this. But then, we are chastened by our own
Tiruvalluvar who says:
எற்à®±ுஎன்à®±ு
இரங்குவ
செய்யற்க
செய்வானேல்
மற்à®±ுஅன்ன
செய்யாà®®ை
நன்à®±ு
“A person shall not
undertake in the first place, any act which might force him to regret later.
If, by chance, he had done, such an act by mistake due to ignorance or
unavoidable circumstances, let him not repeat it”
Manu, the giver of law that
even today forms the basis of Indian Civil law, also said the same:
अज्ञानाद् यदि वा ज्ञानात् कृत्वा कर्म विगर्हितम् ।
तस्माद् विमुक्तिमन्विच्छन् द्वितीयं न समाचरेत् ॥
“He who, having either
unintentionally or intentionally committed a regrettable deed, desires to be
freed from the guilt on it, must not commit it a second time”
We generally take these
philosophers as having dealt with man’s quest of realization with. However,
these lessons apply equally in all the spheres of life of a society too.
Even Sun Tzu never
wrote his treatise keeping only Generals and Commanders in mind!!
Acknowledgment
This article was first published by te author in Defence Research and Studies website https://dras.in/chinese-aircraft-carrier-from-macau-with-love/ on 28 December 2020.
References
ARKIB. (1998, November 11). Utusan Online.
Retrieved December 04, 2020, from Macau Company Denies Buying Carrier For
China: https://web.archive.org/web/20170224132150/http://ww1.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.asp?y=1998&dt=1111&pub=Utusan_Express&sec=World_Trend&pg=wt_09.htm
BBC. (2019, July 29). BBC. Retrieved November
15, 2020, from China profile - Timeline:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13017882
China Power Team. (2020, August 26). CSIS.
Retrieved December 04, 2020, from What Do We Know (so far) about China’s Second
Aircraft Carrier?:
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-aircraft-carrier-type-001a/
Global Security. (2011, July 05). Global Security.
Retrieved December 04, 2020, from Taiwan Strait: 21 July 1995 to 23 March 1996:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/taiwan_strait.htm
Mizokami, K. (2019, November 20). National Interest.
Retrieved December 04, 2020, from The 1996 Taiwan Crisis Shows Why China Wants
Aircraft Carriers so Badly:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/1996-taiwan-crisis-shows-why-china-wants-aircraft-carriers-so-badly-98152
Sanskrit Roots. (n.d). Sanskrit Roots.
Retrieved October 18, 2020, from National Integration Through Thirukkural And
Sanskrit:
https://sanskritroots.com/thirukkural-couplets/601-700/651-660/655-introspection/
Vavasseur, X. (2019, January 24). Naval News.
Retrieved December 04, 2020, from Liaoning Aircraft Carrier Returns To Sea
After Refit: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2019/01/liaoning-aircraft-carrier-returns-to-sea-after-refit/
We are happy to announce that the Dec 2020-Jan 2021 Issue of Electronic Journal of Social and Strategic Studies (EJSSS) with 06 papers on IR, Strategic Studies, Psychology and Edn & Trg, and 03 Book Reviews on IR/Education is online. We are an Open Access, refereed journal committed to promote interdisciplinary research in Social Sciences/Strategic Studies. We are also a member journal of CROSSREF. Our application for ISSN is in process.
Visit us at www.ejsss.net.in
We specifically aspire to encourage young and emerging scholars to publish their research and publication. We firmly believe that a knowledge driven society is the only hope for a promising and sustainable future that all of us hope for.
The contents of our Issue are as below:
CONTENTS
Articles
1.
China and the West: Contestations in
African Development and Security 122-150
Dr Napoleon Kurantin and Prof. Bertha Z.
Osei-Hwedie
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1201
2.
Criminal
Justice Responses and Fear of Crime in the Era of COVID-19 151-166
Chyna
N. Crawford, PhD
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1202
3.
Multilateralism, Multipolarity and ASEAN:
A Re-Appraisal 167-186
Prof. Y Yagama Reddy
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1203
4.
Procedure Established by Law, Right to
Privacy 187-214
and
Investigative Powers of State: An Appraisal
Dr Rajamanickam Srinivasan
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1204
5.
US and India: Paving the road to ensuring peace
and prosperity 215-237
in the Indo-Pacific region
Udita Banerjee
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1205
6.
South China Sea: Perspectives, Challenges
and India’s Options 238-263
Commodore SL Deshmukh, NM (Retd)
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1206
Book Reviews
7.
Digital Media and the Politics of
Transformation in the Arab World and Asia
264-265
by Carola
Richter et. al. (2018)
Dr
Cserkits Michael
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1207
8.
The Science of Agriculture: A Biological
Approach (5th Ed.) 266-268
by Dr.
Ray V. Herren
Dr. Wandra Arrington
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1208
9.
Just Research in Contentious Times:
Widening the Methodological Imagination 269-272
by
Michelle Fine
Katherine Baker Johnson
https://doi.org/10.47362/EJSSS.2020.1209
Dr R Srinivasan
India
returns Chinese soldier
On
18 October 2020, Corporal Wang Ya Long of the Chinese PLA strayed across the
LAC in Demchok sector and was apprehended by Indian Army. Army sources
confirmed the apprehension and also issued a statement that he would be
released after completing specified formalities[i]. Forty
eight hours later, Corporal Wang Ya Long was handed over to PLA front line
troops at Chushul-Moldo meeting point, which was corroborated by Chinese media
in their press releases[ii].
Though the above incident did not cause any stir in public minds, not to say scholarly discussions, it is an important of dimension to be looked at in the light of Sino-Indian skirmish at Galwan in May this year. The board game of chess that commenced at that time remains in spotlight what with both the countries moving their pawns in manners that are testing each other’s will.
India and China are both signatories to the Geneva Conventions 1949. While India ratified the Conventions in 1950, China ratified them in 1956[iii]. Under Article 118, first paragraph, of the 1949 Geneva Convention III (GC III): “Prisoners of war shall be released and repatriated without delay after the cessation of active hostilities.” Being signatories to the Convention, both India and China have an International legal obligation to repatriate PsOW, should and whenever conflicts between the countries occur. Interestingly, GC III applies only in conflicts that are declared as war.
Technically speaking, a soldier in uniform (with or without weapons) straying into another country is deemed as a mercenary and is liable for criminal prosecution in the country where he is apprehended. Should that person be not in uniform, he is deemed as a spy and is likely to be prosecuted accordingly. Both these conditions could apply in situations where armed conflicts not declared as war by respective countries prevail. ICRC and the larger international community of scholars have always advocated fair treatment and return of soldiers even under these circumstances, though such opinions are at best looked upon as humanitarian appeals rather than mandates of GC III.
China and Indian PsOW
Immediately after the 1962 Sino-Indian operations, the Indian Red Cross handed over a list of 3968 names of Indian soldiers as having been would, killed or captured to the Chinese Red Cross. China refuted the claims and delayed its responses till 1963. After an intensive diplomatic and international intervention, courtesy Rajkumari Amrit Kaur and Maj Gen CK Lakshmanan, China accepted that it held 1132 POW and had returned 715 wounded earlier with 13 dead bodies. On January 25, 1963, the ICRC's executive director wrote to General Lakshmanan to draw the IRC's attention to the announcements of the China News Agency that 2,156, (or 3,350) Indian POWs were still in Chinese hands.
On 6th February 1963, President ICRC himself took up the matter with Marshal Chen Yi, the then Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs. Marshal Chen intimated ICRC two weeks later that “Since the Sino-Indian border clashes, the Chinese government has all along given good treatment in every respect to the Indian military personnel who were captured in the course of their attacks on the Chinese frontier guards.”[iv] China maintained that it was Indian troops that had attacked ‘unsuspecting’ border guards of the Chinese Army in Tibet and Sinkiang!!
Importantly, as Claude Arpi noted in his report, China found it “most regrettable that the India PoWs 'captured in the course of the Chinese frontier guards's counterattacks in self-defence' were equated with the 'law-abiding overseas Chinese illegally detained by the Indian authorities.' On 27th February 1963, the ICRC confirmed to General Lakshmanan that the total number of Indian prisoners of war still in Chinese hands was 3,319, excluding the 716 wounded and sick who have been repatriated and the 13 bodies returned by the Chinese Red Cross.” [v] From 1963 onwards, China announced that it will release PsOW in batches. As of now, there does not appear to be any clear document or report by either governments whether all PsOW have been repatriated. Such an action by Chinese took nearly eighteen months after considerable international pressure.
India and PsOW
India’s actions to repatriate 93000 Pakistani soldiers who surrendered at Dacca after 1971 Indo-Pak war stands testimony to the commitment to International Law and Humanitarian Principles that India stands by. Repatriating Wang Ya Long now reiterates India’s position on such issues.
In contrast, during 1962, the Chinese had even pointed out that there was no ‘Declaration of War’ between India and China. They used this line of international legal logic to deny ICRC the right to visit China and inspect their internment facilities. Initiatives taken by President ICRC, Rajkumari Amrit Kaur as President of Indian Red Cross and Maj Gen Lakshmanan eventually melted down their cold denial.
Conclusion
Clauswitz famously said, “War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by different means”[vi]. While the common perception is politics sans morality, war is not fought on barbaric terms. The soldiers partaking in war are merely executing the will of the polity. They have neither personal enmity nor do they entertain culturally induced hatred. Therefore, a polity when it chooses to defy international norms such as laid down in Geneva Conventions, indulges in acts that humanity has always held as abhorrent.
India’s action to return Wang stands as a testimony to the nation’s vibrant culture that upholds non-violence and forgiveness as core principles even in international relations where geopolitical compulsions give rise to temptations and vanity resulting in irresponsible acts by political actors.
[i]
Spl Corr. (2020, October 19). Army apprehends Chinese soldier in Demchok
sector—The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-apprehends-chinese-soldier-in-demchok-sector/article32892047.ece
[ii] Krishnan, A., & Peri, D. (2020, October 21). India hands over Chinese soldier who crossed LAC. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-hands-over-chinese-soldier-who-crossed-lac/article32906023.ece
[iii] ICRC. (n.d.). Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries—China. Retrieved October 21, 2020, from https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/vwTreatiesByCountrySelected.xsp?xp_countrySelected=CN
[iv] Arpi, C. (2019, December 6). Exclusive! How China released Indian troops after the 1962 War—Rediff.com India News. https://www.rediff.com/news/special/how-china-released-indian-troops-after-the-1962-war/20191206.htm
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Clausewitz: War as Politics by other Means—Online Library of Liberty. (n.d.). Retrieved October 21, 2020, from https://oll.libertyfund.org/pages/clausewitz-war-as-politics-by-other-means
August 2021 Monthly Forecast 30 July 2021 Dear Ramesh, In August, India will have the presidency of the Security Council. Most meetings ar...